One of the first tags I created here on the blog was “Future TV” which seemed to best sum up the various articles and such I was absorbing about what was sometimes called “Peak TV” and sometimes a new “Golden Age” of television. In hindsight, “the streaming wars” should have been coined as a nod to the far more fun “cola wars.” That’s because it became clear that Peak TV and the “wars” were over last year… and Netflix had won.
But as the aftermath continues, which includes the landmark strikes from last year, and TV production continues to contract, there’s more analysis of what we’re left with. And depending on who you ask, it’s pretty grim.
Enter Adam Conover, who was very vocal on behalf of the entertainment unions last year, in part from being on the board of the WGA and being part of their negotiating committee. He’s also well known for rambunctiously taking down preconceived and ill-conceived notions… often with NSFW language. So if you’ve seen his videos (some of which I’ve shared here), you know he’s coming from a definite point of view… and forcefully so:
Conover’s videos are invariably chock full of insights and facts delivered with the quips, so there’s plenty of interesting tidbits, but his premise is what I referred to as the “streaming wars” above was really Netflix being very much the tech company disruptor who wanted to destroy TV. All the other streamers, by and large helmed by legacy media companies, made the mistake of battling Netflix on Netflix’ terms in large part because Netflix’ business model was not a sustainable one.
Conover identifies three fatal flaws:
Fatal Flaw # 1: Bingewatching
A delightful innovation for viewers when it first came out, it’s increasingly become obvious that it obliterates the all-important marketing ingredient, “buzz.” Once movies needed to live or die in the opening weekend, it killed the path many a feature film from finding profitability as strong per-screen showings could extend the stay of many an otherwise unknown gem. Bingewatching brings that unnecessary sudden statistical deathmatch to TV. “Buzz” and “word of mouth” are the original “viral” or media and have the in-built humility that creators and studios and marketers don’t know everything and audiences will let you know what they like — and more often than not, that’s where you find innovation, because I like “cult” films and hidden gems, but no studio executive will prefer those to an unexpected hit they can gift with sequels, more seasons, or other moneymaking maneuvers.
So why would I term bingewatching “delightful?” Like many others, I loved this instant gratification aspect of streaming Netflix at first, as I had “bingewatched” completed series via DVD-by-mail Netflix for years. But the truth is, I don’t need this bit of instant gratification just like most people don’t need most forms of instant gratification. There are all series that we will happily watch week after week (which enables advertising, listed below) just as there are series that I will miss and then happily bingewatch. And let’s face it: we all bingewatch at different rates. The DVD-by-mail bingewatching meant I couldn’t average more than 1-2 episodes a day, a civilized pace from a now-bygone age. Also, I’m willing to wager that everyone has jumped into bingewatching a show in the past 10 years… and then wanted to take a break. A business model where you have to schedule time to bingewatch everything? That’s not only leaving valuable “buzz” on the table, that’s rude.
Fatal Flaw # 2: Death of the Media Brand
For the life of me, I can’t understand how the legacy studio braintrust allowed this to happen. Even if I don’t think there was a channel that defined me as much as Comedy Central was Adam Conover’s jam, I knew what all the channels were supposed to be. We all did. Cable allowed media companies to build brands that targeted media audiences like never before and keep on trying to refine that audience (and the channel’s profitability) for over 40 years. Media companies, above all, should understand the sometimes ethereal value of that branding. I may not be excited when I hear about the new show on “TruTV,” but somebody is.
Instead, in a case where you wonder if executives understand that words mean things, “HBO,” a name synonymous with “prestige TV” became “HBO Max” shortly before becoming “Max.”
How many millions upon millions of dollars were poured into building brands that have now been kicked to the curb?
Fatal Flaw # 3: Advertising
I have to admit, I didn’t fully appreciate how overwhelming a factor advertising revenue was until the strikes last year… and in many ways, I still don’t think I fully grok it.
My main takeaway, which is not hard to grok, was that the old business model depended on advertising revenue to be sustainable. The streaming model pioneered by Netflix absolutely, positively did not have anything that would replace or exceed that revenue. Because being sustainable was not part of their war strategy.
Besides advertising being integral to non-bingewatching (aka building buzz) and to brand identity (all the better to have targeted ads for well-defined audiences), that lack of revenue has meant less money to pay the people who make the product. And as was pointed out during the strikes last year(maybe not as forcefully as it needed to be), but the workers did their part. They didn’t choose the business model.
This leads to the most frustrating aspect of this story and why I can’t say that the title above is pure hyperbolae… because it’s not clear what the sustainable business model is moving forward, but the assumption is we’re not suddenly going back to cable TV.
Stay tuned (online), true believers… after this new ad.